2026 Economic Outlook: Why the Data Says "Fine" but Investors Feel Concerned | Ep 107

James: When you look at the numbers, honestly, 2026 should be totally fine. But many investors, they just feel concerned about what's going on. They don't necessarily feel fine. So in this episode, we're gonna dive into why on the Furlo Capital Real Estate Podcast, where we dive into the intricacies of passive real estate investing, which is highly dependent on our economy and all the big metrics around that.

Where our mission is to equip people to invest wisely in both properties and people so that together we can build wealth while improving housing. I'm James, and this is my wife Jessi.

Jessi: Who has survived exactly one econ class. That's true. And survived is a great descriptor. So this should be fun. No, you do a good job of breaking down economics for me that I can.

I welcome. It Gets me frustrated. Honestly. 'cause I'm like, aha. I hate that. That is what drives the economy. Yeah. You know, just just it, the factor like, ah, yeah. Yeah. The parameters surrounding why things happen is like, oh, I wish it wasn't that. But as we're awake what's into the

James: new year, I think it's a good thing to talk about anyways.

Okay. Even it makes you frustrated ripping the bandaid because it helps with some planning.

Jessi: That's true.

James: So we're gonna talk some economics, we're gonna talk some housing. Mm-hmm. And what was the other thing? Those are big ones. Okay. Economics and how they affect housing. There you go. Um, here you go. I'm just gonna throw out some numbers.

GDP, I'm gonna say it grows 2% next year. Wow. Just get a prediction right out the gate. Take that based on information. Um, no, I, based on information I looked at, um. I looked at a bunch of different sources of information, listened to a bunch of pundits. Yeah. And so this is kind of the, the synthesis Yeah.

Yeah. Of all of that. Um, I did not actually take the time to write down my, what is typical sources, but

Jessi: what is typical, uh, in a, in a good economy? What's the GDP growth?

James: Yeah, good question. Uh, it's two, 3%. All right. If it's it's like a solid, you're doing good, four to five, you're like, man, this is starting to feel a little hot.

And people are gonna be like, how do we slow this down a little bit. Like 3% is like. Perfect. All right. Uh, Oregon, I actually think it's, um, it's gonna be tracking pretty close to national. It was pretty sluggish last year. Hmm. It just felt that way. Yeah. And so I think it'll feel good. I, this is important.

I think growth is narrow in the sense that it is heavily driven by tech and ai. Mm-hmm. Not necessarily a broad based consumption. Sure. Like when you look at the stock market it's up mm-hmm. Significantly. And it's driven by like five companies. Oh wow. Everything else is middling. Interesting. So I think that's true for the economy as well.

And

Jessi: those five companies are all tech based companies. Uhhuh.

James: Uhhuh, huh? Yeah, they're all the big guys. Yeah. Yeah. Nvidia, Google, Facebook, Amazon, apple to some extent. And uh, yeah, so it's all just, it's tech AI, man.

Jessi: Interesting.

James: Yeah. It's concerning is what it is. It will, because if something happens there, man, get ready.

Uh, another big one that everyone's gonna care about is inflation. So here's what's interesting, forward-looking inflation indicators. They're not flashing any danger signs, which is crazy because it doesn't necessarily feel that way when you go shopping. It does not, which remember, inflation is the rate of growth.

So like for example, like tariffs, they create a one-time price increase. Despite what our president tried to tell us, they create a one-time price increase, but then it's not ongoing.

And so inflation technically is zero going forward for the tariffs. Mm. Even though the price you pay is forever higher.

So inflation's weird. Right. It's the rate of growth, not. It's absolute value. And so I can sit there and say, Hey, inflation, it's expected to remain around 3%. Ideally you want it like two, so it's a little higher than what you'd want. And you go, cool, only 3%. And generally like, that's great. But you're also like, but yeah, but like relative to like six years ago.

Yeah. The I is significantly higher over time.

Jessi: Yeah. I, I saw this short today that said, here's the list of groceries that Kevin bought in the first home alone. Okay. It was like 19 and change. 1983 actually. 'cause it was my birthday.

James: There you go.

Jessi: Anyways, $19 83 cents. And then they were like, how much would it be today if I went shopping for the same things?

It was like over $60. I believe it for the same stuff. Yeah. I was like, that's, see, that's just because we still, I feel like yes. The inflation it's growing at a whatever, a decent rate. However, we still in our brains, I know operate. On the like 20-year-old number. Hmm. Oh yeah. No, true. Because we, 'cause we felt that we lived it, which that's, that's every generation I feel like, you know?

'cause I remember talking with my parents and even my grandparents and being like, I remember I can go down to the movies for a nickel, blah, blah. I can get a candy bar and watch a movie. You know, which is just like, yeah, that's okay. You know? Yeah. It's the same. It's the same. We just. Paid $10 and now it's 40.

This, by the

James: way, is why debt is so amazing. Hmm. Because that stays the same. And so as inflation goes up and your dollar becomes more, less valuable in the sense of like that groceries true. Like if you imagine so 83, this wouldn't work, but let's say that you had a a 33 year mortgage. Mm-hmm. That mortgage payment would still be the 1983 number.

Even though your income and all the other expenses are higher, it's gonna seem crazy cheap. Even our house. Yeah, I remember when we got our mortgage, I was like, oh my gosh, this is nuts. And now road to everything else like, like this is the best deal around like, this is amazing. Yeah. Like we pay less in our mortgage than some tenants pay in rent for a smaller house.

Yeah. So that's wild. And that's because of debt. Mm-hmm. And so that's one of like, I'm, I'm a big believer like, no man. Yeah. Take on the debt. It's all good. It may seem expensive today, but man, just wait five years. Sure. And but yeah but, and more importantly, I don't see us doing like the whole nine, 18% inflation type of thing.

Yeah. I don't see it skyrocketing. I think it's gonna be higher than what we want, but not outta control.

Jessi: Alright.

James: Is the, that's good. Optim, let's talk about optimistic about employment now. So unemployment's kind of an interesting measure as well. That's another one where like you want it somewhere in that three to 5% range.

Mm-hmm. I think it's gonna be in the low to mid 4% range. Mm-hmm. So it's on the higher end, but it's not crazy. Mm-hmm. This is one of the things that the Fed has been wrestling with recently is like they gotta, they're trying to find that balance between unemployment and inflation and both numbers.

They're like both a little high, but it's not nuts. Like we don't need to necessarily rock the boat here. Yeah. Um, I do see Oregon drifting closer to that 5%.

Jessi: Oh wow.

James: By the end of the year. Mm-hmm. Just based on everyone that I've seen, can you

Jessi: make the connection for me? Um, I know they use unemployment.

As an indicator of how the economy is doing. Mm-hmm. And I think I get it, but just make the connection for me, like higher unemployment, uhhuh means what? What do you think It means fewer people have jobs. Yep. Therefore, that's bad.

James: Yeah. Okay.

Jessi: Like people should have jobs and be making money ideally.

James: Yes. So you want that

Jessi: number to be low

James: because then they can go spend it and it all works.

Cyclical. Yeah.

Jessi: Makes the economy

James: better because you can, in theory, you can get into a death spiral if an unemployment gets too high. Okay.

Jessi: Because then people don't have money. They're not spending money.

James: Companies go, Ooh, we don't wanna hire anyone 'cause we don't know what's going on. And it just becomes a problem.

Jessi: Oh yeah. It feeds. Feeds the beast. Yep, yep,

James: yep.

Jessi: Interesting. Okay. Yeah.

James: And then there's other stuff too where it's like if the labor market gets too tight, like there's no unemployment, that means. That employers can't find people,

and now

they're like, they'll pay whatever. And so you actually see wage growth skyrocket, which leads to higher inflation.

Because they're like, well, if I'm gonna pay employees more, yeah. Now I need to, I gotta charge more. Raise my prices. Yep. And so there's it's a balance. It's a dance between the two.

Jessi: Yeah. All right.

James: Yep. Yep. You would prefer to have that situation than the unemployment. 'cause you just can't lower your prices.

You just mm-hmm. You just stop making it. Mm-hmm. Which then causes a new problem. Your supply goes down, and if demand, and if your supply goes down faster than demand, then price prices will go up anyways. Mm-hmm. Um, but anyways, I think the labor market is cooling. I don't think it's gonna collapse. I think that's one of concerns that people have had.

Again, 'cause it feels very narrow band type of thing.

Jessi: Yeah.

James: But according to the data, it should be fine.

Jessi: Right.

James: I don't think it'll force some widespread distress, probably. It doesn't feel that way, which is what's weird about it. Yeah. But data wise, I think it'll be fine. Okay, we're gonna talk interest rates.

Okay. Okay. There's, this one's actually really interesting. So there's the federal funds rate, which is what the Fed sets. Mm-hmm. Which is for the short term rate. And President Trump would like to have a new guy come in. Mm-hmm. Which I think is like, it's like, what is it? It's February or March, I think.

Everyone's talking about how he wants to appoint someone who's gonna, who's going to lower the inflation rate or that interest rate. That interest rate, thank you. And which could actually increase inflation, decrease employment. But anyways if he gets his way and he finds someone who plays along who doesn't have to, by the way, then we will see interest rates drop.

Though there's not a perfect correlation between what the Fed does and actual interest rates. 'cause interest rates are actually determined by the bond market, which is influenced by the federal funds rate. But and

Jessi: interest rates on what

James: homes?

Jessi: Oh, businesses. Oh, okay.

James: Whatever. Yeah. So the Fed funds rate, they set the rate that banks can do to borrow between each other.

Oh.

Which then kind of sets them up for, okay, here's how much I'm willing to let other people borrow from. It's complicated, but that's kind of what it's a good indicator of where things are going. Right. So I could see them, I could see it falling near the end of the year mm-hmm.

As that new guy comes in. But I also see mortgage rates, they're still gonna be in like that 6% range. Alright. To be honest, I don't see them falling. Those aren't gonna drop. I'd be, I, I would be highly surprised that they fall below 5%. Yeah. Because, so you have your bond market, which sets the bond price is kinda like the floor.

Mm-hmm. But then banks set an interest rate a little bit above it. Mm-hmm. And that a little bit above it is determined by the amount of uncertainty and risk. So the more that there is, the higher you pay. And we feel like we're in uncertain times. Right. So that, so it's delta is bigger and so even though I think rates are gonna fall, the Fed funds rate, and therefore bonds will fall, I don't necessarily think you're gonna see interest rates fall that much.

I think some, but not a tremendous amount. Much to our president's chagrin. Yeah. I mean, unless, unless I'm totally wrong and the rest the recession hits then we'll see interest rates drop

Jessi: dramatically.

James: But let's hope not.

Jessi: Which, what's, what is the timing on a predicted recession like historically?

Are we in the zone or, yeah, kind of.

James: Yeah. Yeah. Kind of.

Jessi: Who knows? I,

James: I don't know, man. Like the, all the numbers are so wonky right now. There's so many dials that are being turned all at once and everyone's messing with everything, right? It's like, uh, I don't know what's gonna happen. The past indicators just don't seem to work anymore.

And now you have all these algorithms that do all the trading and logic for us now. Strange, where information is like, like information gets. How do I say it? New information like filters through the economy at such a speed. Mm. It's, it's crazy. So I, I don't know, man. That's my honest so here's what I would say from a growth cycle standpoint, and I'm learning more about what that is, we're in a firm place right now.

From an inflation standpoint, it seems contained and I think we're in like a fragile Goldilocks phase. I think for this next year, I think that's what it's gonna feel like. We're all gonna be like. Okay. It's not broken. Yeah, it's not safe. It just feels like this recession should have happened, but it's not happening.

Sure. Are we out of it? Are we not? I don't know. Is it possible something happens in 2027 maybe? I don't know, man. I've tried to predict in recession so much and been wrong every single time, so I'm. I'm flipping to the other side. All right. Which could be bad, but yeah, I don't wanna, I don't wanna be, it's all your fault guys just like, just wait, look out.

Like Sure. I don't wanna be that guy. Well, I mean, but it's definitely not like things are going now. What? I will, uh, I was gonna say it's

Jessi: like cautious.

James: It's more like, no, it's not even cautious optimism. It's more like. I guess it's fine. Resignation.

Jessi: Resignation. Yeah. Yeah.

James: All right. That's how it, that's how it feels like.

Jessi: Yeah.

James: All right. Let's talk about the housing market and then we'll talk about construction and rentals specifically. Sounds good. So, uh, home prices, little bit of growth, not much, little bit of growth.

That's what I'm saying. And I think over

Jessi: all of 2026.

James: Yeah, I think Oregon as well. Well, some flat to modest gains. Nothing crazy. Um, so

Jessi: it's a buyer's market,

James: uh, if they're gonna remain stable ish, I guess, which it currently is, a buyer's market. And so I think it will remain that way. All right. For a while there.

Yeah. I think they're gonna see, like, I think we'll see sales volume increase, which would be really nice. 'cause they have just been like, they've been so low. Yeah. Just in terms of volume. So I think we'll see it pick up some like maybe two to 5% NA nationally. Um. I think we'll see longer days on market.

Mm. I

think we're already seeing that. I think we're gonna continue to see that. Sure. That whole 60 to 90 days type of thing, that's something we're building into our underwriting now. Mm. Where it's not like, Hey, we'll get this thing Yeah. Listed and close in 30 days. It's, we're like, no, we're gonna get it listed and it's gonna sit for 30 to 60 days, and then we'll have a 30 day close.

Wow. That's how we're underwriting it. Yeah. Now and you're just gonna have a lot less bidding wars, which that's good for us as buyers. Um, and I think really like, it's just normalization. That's what this is. It's not necessarily distressed, it's really just getting back to a, a good, balanced market.

And I think that's okay. The problem is that sellers are still like, oh, my real estate's going up and up and up. Right. And it's amazing. And buyers. They're being cautious. Mm-hmm. And saying like, well, I just don't know interest rates. Who could? Mm-hmm. But they're there. They're there, they're just a little bit more cautious.

Mm-hmm. So you have that, you have a slight disconnect there. Yeah. Which is, which is hard. Which has started, I mean, it's been there for this last year, and I think it's just gonna continue on. Mm-hmm. I don't think people will be like, oh yeah, this is what it is now. It's funny, we were looking at a, um, at a potential flip to buy, it was a wholesaler.

They bought it, it was here in Corvallis and a ton of people went through and, took a tour of it. Mm-hmm. It had like an open house thing. Yeah. We did it and we got done and it was kind of, it was really weird. They had it priced at 500,000. I've, we were like, it's really only with 400 ultimately, they're like, well, that's what we bought at four was 400 mm. And which I'm like, okay, well you guys aren't gonna make you overpaid. Hey, I'm not gonna let you make a hundred thousand dollars for doing nothing. Yeah. But that was, I sat there and was like, yeah, 400 was the price. Mm-hmm. And I'm like, you should have just taken that next step and just, just do the flip.

Mm-hmm. Like, that's what you should do. Mm-hmm. Because you, they should have bought it for three 50 and sold it for four. Yeah. That's what they should have done. But, they were looking at the marketing where things were headed. Mm-hmm. So they ended up getting zero offers on it, which Yikes. I'm like, Hey, happens.

Yeah. Uh, construction. In general, this one's kind of an interesting one. So Oregon is producing about 14,000 to 15,000 units per year.

The estimated need is about 30,000 units. Yikes. Per year. In fact, the governor has a goal of doing 36,000 a year. Obviously, we're not there.

And so a lot of the current things is that new

Jessi: construction or just available?

James: Additional.

Jessi: Additional, yeah. Okay.

James: Just new.

Jessi: Sure.

James: So what's interesting is that a lot of the things that are coming online now are ones that started before the interest rates spiked up.

Mm.

Yep. So they're, they're coming, but when they did when interest rates started to rise, a lot of that just, it just stopped.

And so what we're gonna see is a really interesting cliff in 2027 and 2028. Mm. So it's gonna start at the end of this year. But it's gonna be really interesting. And so

Jessi: why, like, explain what? 'cause they, because, oh, because, so they started building. They

James: started building, but then when interest rates went up, they got expensive builders went, I'm out.

Okay. And so they stopped. So like the new housing, new housing starts as a lot less now as a result. Oh. And that demand stays consistent. Okay. And so I think. From a rental standpoint, 27 20 eight's gonna be really interesting. I mean, unless the economy does drop and wages stay stagnant, people don't have jobs then.

Like you just. It's gonna, it could potentially be bad.

Mm.

There I am trying to, it's gonna be the

doom,

but I'm probably fine. 'cause they'll come up with something that's probably fine. But but yeah, just from a pure supply and demand standpoint. Yeah. There's supply is Yeah. Staying. It seemed like we were like, oh yeah, we're finally, like, we're, we're tracking.

Then interest rates spiked and we went, oh, then mine, we're not tracking anymore. Yeah. It turns out like the housing thing is very, like, it's very marginal. Mm-hmm. They don't make a ton of money off a building, and so a small change in the interest rate has a big, it's a big lever, it turns out. Good guess.

So all that to say I think there'll be some housing starts and this year will feel normal and next year is where it's gonna get. Interesting. Let's talk about rentals.

Yeah. Rentals.

So the Oregon medium median rent is about $1,400. Here's the part that I love, that's less than what we pay on our, that's more than what we pay on our mortgage.

So we are paying less for our mortgage, PITI, than the median rent.

Jessi: How do they determine, because Portland, the median rent, is that based on a certain size of unit? No, it's just all That's just all the rents all together? Yeah, all together For every unit, every size. That's that they've surveys the

James: midpoint or median, which is down one to 1.5% versus last year

Jessi: that's down.

James: And it, I've, and this is the thing, I've been communicating with a lot of people recently where I'm like, yeah, rents are down in Oregon. Like all the, all the places where I used to go to find rent rates and do the research, I'm like, yeah, they're all like.

All of 'em are actually overestimating 'cause they're all kind of biased to always continue to go up.

Mm-hmm. And or be flat. I'm like, yo, it's actually down. Yeah. And they're not adjusting well enough. I, I literally take some of them and and decrease it. 10 to 15%. Mm. It's go, Nope, I just know this isn't right. 'cause I've, I've done enough of these mm-hmm. Where it'll just sit 'cause people just won't rent.

Right. And. So I know it vacancy rate is about six to 7% statewide, which is high. Yeah. And that's, honestly, I was doing the math for me, I'm like, yeah, I'm at like 7%. Mm-hmm. So, which for how long was it where it was like vacancy's, like one to 2%. Right. It's like nothing. It's like, yep. Nope. Back to the normal underwriting of doing 10% vacancy Yeah.

Is the right thing to do. And that's where we're at. And I definitely like, it's in the last six months where mm-hmm. That has happened. And um, I definitely feel that, I think that's gonna persist.

Hmm.

Um, it's gonna persist continue to be rent renter friendly in the next year. And then maybe it'll, we'll have some stabilization as that, as the housing, new housing mm-hmm.

Doesn't increase. You know, the whole supply demand thing kind of takes over, but again, if people's wages stay low or unemployment stays high, like it's not gonna matter. Right. They won't be able to afford it. They can't afford it anyways. Yeah.

Jessi: Yeah.

Yeah, it's like you need. More, this is gonna sound so cliche.

You need more affordable housing.

James: Yeah. Well and it's what's interesting. You need a

Jessi: certain type of unit. Right. And you'll

James: actually see, you'll see less inflation in some areas because they just go like, we just can't. Mm-hmm. We can't charge that much. 'cause people won't pay it. I was talking to. My mother and we were just talking about eating out.

I was like, oh yeah, you and I, we eat all the time, like multiple times a week. Mm-hmm. And now it's like once a month maybe.

Yeah.

And it's just 'cause of the price. It priced us out of the market. We're like, it's not worth it. Yeah. And I think there's a lot of other people where that's the situation. Um, we're gonna talk about the, the khap economy next, but 'cause it's not true for everybody, but for a lot of people it is.

So especially in like that, that lower income renter. Yeah. I actually don't think you'll see a lot of rent growth just 'cause Yeah. They're not gonna have the income to go up. So gotta keep that in mind. Mm-hmm. All right. Let's talk about that KS shaped economy. Okay. So you have. Yep. That's the idea.

So there's some people where things feel like they're on the up and up. Yeah. Other people where it feels like it's not so much totally different experience. It's going down. Yeah. And I could definitely like, just based on conversations I have with people, it totally sounds that way.

Jessi: Interesting.

James: And um, and I can tell that you and I.

We actually live on the upper part of the, on the K curve. Yeah. 'Cause there's certain things where like I, I'll make comments about like, oh yeah, yeah, we're doing this and that and, and just like, it's very optimistic and sounds great relative to what other people are doing. Like we're talking about Oh yeah.

Our wages are going up and we're mm-hmm. Taking trips and, you know, hiring

Jessi: people to hiring people Yeah. Doing

James: all that kind of stuff. And other people who are just like, oh no, it's not good. Mm-hmm. So it's, uh, it's interesting. Um, they throw out this number, and I don't know if I believe it, but it says the top 10, the top 10% are driving consumption.

And there was some other stat that was actually, like, I tried to talk about like how much, like it's driving 50% of consumption, which I'm like, the more I've learned and been talked about it, I'm like, it's not possible, but mm-hmm. I do think that top 10% is driving some of that consumption growth that we're seeing.

And it comes back to like, it's that narrow piece. So it's not necessarily everybody. Mm-hmm. Um, so what this means. This kind of can explain why our GDP is gonna remain. Seems like good growth. Why inflation is not gonna go crazy. It's because you have that low end that's actually keeping it down.

And why Sentiment just feels awful.

Jessi: Yeah, because there's still not everybody is succeeding. Correct. Huh.

James: Which, I mean, it always happens in an economy. Sure.

Jessi: But it's, it's more split. Yeah. Or more evident. I think

James: I remember it was the 2008, 2009, I think. Like my dad, he was in construction and he was like, this is like end of the world type of thing.

Yeah. And I just started working for HP and I was like, this is great. And so, so like it totally happens. Yeah. But I just, it feels like it's an another one of those more acute times where that's happening. Yeah. Um, some implications for real estate. Is you're gonna have workforce housing, it's just gonna behave differently than luxury assets.

Mm. Those nice homes. Mm-hmm. So vacation rentals might actually do Okay. Depending on the location and Sure. And what it is. Yeah. But yeah, some of those like studios, one beds, uh, they might struggle potentially.

Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. And you know, obviously stability is just gonna be on those boring, well located homes, just like always.

That's how it is. Yep. Yeah. So all of that, um, if we were to kind of sum it all together, I don't think we're gonna see a spike in unemployment. All right. I don't think we're gonna see any for selling wave mm-hmm. Of properties, which is a bummer for me as a buyer, but it's okay. It's good. It's good.

And I don't think we're gonna see inflation break up or break out higher or anything. I think it'll remain Yeah. Pretty. More

Jessi: stable than anything else.

James: But I also think like we're not gonna see like any late, late cycle pricing, um, changes. Mm-hmm. I think our, there's, I think there's like thin margins for air on how our government is trying to centrally plan things.

Sure. And, and what companies are trying to do. And yeah. So those are just,

Jessi: do you think Go ahead. There'll be any sort of. I know that in like when it's a down economy, they, there's down, there's a bunch of like incentives and like governmental incentives. Yeah. But if it's a K, that's okay. Do they still offer some of those to certain.

Yeah. To the downers. To

James: the downers? Uh, yeah, potentially. Yeah, I think so. Okay. If that's like a

Jessi: consistent thing, like I know there's government incentives and tax incentives and things like that regularly, but Yeah. Or all the time, but it's like, do they ever target, do. Certain groups.

James: Well, yeah.

Well you think about like our very first re rental that we bought. Oh yeah. They had first time home homeowners, tax new homeowner. Yeah. So yeah, totally interesting. Okay. There was another one, it was something about cars, if I remember correctly. There was like doing a car trade in Right. Deal something.

Yeah. I don't remember. Hmm. Um, so yeah, no, they totally do stuff like that. All right. Yeah. And there honestly were a bunch of promises by both candidates. Mm-hmm. And I haven't been tracking how much of them actually happened. I have a hunch. Not many. Sure. Um, but yeah. So here's my 2026 playbook that's informed by data.

Um, again I favor I'm just durable demand types of places over like growth stories. Mm-hmm. So I think you're better off to invest in the multifamily that's just producing. Well, that's a good solid value add as opposed to we're doing this awesome development teal. Mm-hmm. It's gonna be great. Yeah. I think that's, I think that's the kind of investments that I'm gonna be looking for.

I think, like I've already kinda mentioned, I wanna structure debt for time. Not necessarily timing. So the longer I can get debt Yeah. The more interested I'm gonna be. Interestingly though, like a lot of my investors, they favor the more short term debt. Right. They wanna have, they wanna keep that optionality.

So there's gonna be a balance there that I'm gonna have to strike. 'cause I'm kind of like, eh, I kind of wanna lock things in for a while, kind of ride these out for the next three years. But, you know, that's okay. Um, I have to be okay with accepting slower deployment of capital.

Which I've already saw in 2026, or I saw that last year.

Mm-hmm.

In 2025. And I think that's gonna continue. Um, though as we talked about last week, one of my goals is to improve lead generation. There you go. To try to overcome that natural slowdown that I think is gonna happen. Mm-hmm. And I think. Especially at the end of 2026, I wanna start preparing for what I would call like post inflection opportunities.

So I think, like I said, I think 2026 is a thing I potentially, we're gonna see things start to move and get we'll actually pick a direction in 27 and 28. Okay. And so I think that's when they'll, there's opportunities both up and down. Sure. And so I think that's gonna be, but I think that's what will happen.

I would not be shocked if. If things pick up for me the second half of, mm-hmm. Of this year. Cool. So there you go.

Jessi: Yeah. Those were good conclusions takeaways. Good.

James: Phew. That's what I was going for.

Jessi: Huh? Trying to be actionable. So interesting. Yeah, I, I just don't think about economics. So

James: you mean you don't listen to a ton of different podcast where they all talk about the economy and what's happening and

Jessi: no

James: stuff?

Ah, that's so weird. No, that you don't do that. I thought everyone did that.

Jessi: I, I, yeah. No, I feel more like the downer person just because I'm like, ah, everything's expansive. Gas is expansive, groceries are expansive. It's expansive. Then I'm like, oh wait. We are, we are like, as business owners, the economy is, is good, you know, in, in different aspects.

And yeah, we're not, yeah. It's just different.

James: So I, I really favor the business that I'm in. Um, yeah. Because in a lot of ways it's, it's, I mean, you gotta buy right at the end of the day. Mm-hmm. And I always have the choice not to buy. Sure. Which is nice. But there's a lot of things like on the flipping side of the world, like I can just force that appreciation.

Mm-hmm. As long as I'm conservative on my numbers, which again, it's, I'm not gonna buy as much 'cause I'll be more conservative. Mm-hmm. I'm okay. And on the property management side again, like for me it's like it's. It's not fixed, but you just don't worry about the value of the property going down.

Yeah. It's like, dude, just hold onto it. And yeah, you might have to accept less in rent. Mm-hmm. But, it's never, it shouldn't ever be zero for a long time. So I think that's, I think that's where we're at. Yeah. So I think it's like if I had to describe it, it's like a. Kind of a a sketchy, steady Eddie, you know?

Sure. Like it's gonna feel stable, but I am, but I don't love it. Mm-hmm. Like, that's probably the, what was the term I used earlier? I had a good line for it. It's just, I think by the numbers, it'll be fine. It just won't feel fine going back to it. That's probably the best way to say it.

Just like it'll be fine and I'll be like, ah, is it though? Yeah. But there you go. So there you are. Hopefully that helps you inform your investing for this next year. And if you would like to go with us on some of these investing adventures that we'll be on, you can check us out at furlo.com and you can see our investing thesis and some of the previous projects that we've done and what we're doing.

So with that, thanks for listening and have a great year.